Wednesday, December 12, 2018

The Case Against Fossil Fuels

Another essay assigned for the class Energy & the Environment (Fall Semester 2018, CU Boulder) asked students to develop either a prosecutor's argument convicting human use of fossil fuels of causing an increase in global temperature or a defense attorney's argument for a "not guilty" verdict. Admittedly glossing over much of the data, I chose to focus on just a few simple concepts to make my point.

     Greenhouse gases are a fairly well-studied component of planetary atmospheres. Included in the list of the most prominent—capable of regulating and/or destabilizing the climate on a given planet—are water vapor, carbon dioxide, and methane. These gases tend to trap solar energy radiated from the surface of a planet (measured as its albedo) that would normally make it back to space and have relatively little impact on the equilibrium temperature at the planet’s radius from its parent star. And, if mechanisms exist on planets which continue pumping more greenhouse gases into their atmospheres—carbon sources such as volcanic eruptions—without other mechanisms to pull those gases back out (called carbon sinks), the actual surface temperatures of those planets exceedingly deviate from their equilibrium temperatures. A perfect example in our very own solar system is that of Venus. While the equilibrium temperature of Venus should be around -43 degrees Celsius, the actual surface temperature is over 500 degrees Celsius! Why? The atmosphere of Venus is mostly carbon dioxide, which traps much of the incident radiation from the Sun, and there are no known mechanisms to pull any of that carbon dioxide from it. Venus is a slow rotator (its day is longer than its year) and it is geologically dead with no magnetic field. But, we can learn much from examining the impact of greenhouse gases on global temperatures. So, what does it mean for us here on Earth?
     Ice core samples from Antarctica have allowed accurate depictions of the natural fluctuations of Earth’s climate for at least the past 800,000 years. As well, since 1958 accurate measurements have been taken at Mauna Loa in Hawaii of the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere. These measurements clearly indicate an upward trend, and, when superimposed on the ice core data from the past 1000 years, is quite unprecedented, as shown in the figure from the textbook Energy and the Environment (3rd Edition):

     Earth has gone through a series of global temperature fluctuations in its billions of years. From glaciations and ice ages to warmer, more moderate climates, the natural processes regulating outgassing and carbon sequestration—volcanic eruptions, plate tectonics, atmospheric composition, and ocean temperatures—have allowed long periods over which slow fluctuations in Earth’s climate occurred. But, human activities in just a few centuries have caused a wild deviation from the slowly regulated climate of the past. Since the industrial revolutions of the 18th and 19th centuries, humans have been dumping vast amounts of carbon dioxide, methane, and many other combustion and industry products, into the Earth’s atmosphere. We have created many carbon sources by pulling hydrocarbons out of the ground and burning them; but, we have created virtually zero carbon sinks over the same amount of time. And some of the most impactful carbon sinks that already exist—the oceans—are being warmed by this atmospheric feedback loop; i.e. the warmer the oceans, the less CO2 they are capable of absorbing. (This is how a runaway greenhouse effect accelerates!) We’ve also increased the human population exponentially and created an industry of gigantic agriculture that now contributes to more than half of the methane released into the atmosphere by anthropogenic means. An expectation of no repercussions would be inexcusably foolish!
     It is very clear that human activities have been releasing hundreds of millions of tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere each year for decades. It’s also very clear what happens over time to atmospheres that experience a runaway greenhouse effect: Hotter, drier summers; colder, harsher winters; and wildly unpredictable, more severe weather phenomena such as hurricanes. But, we only live an average of 80 years on this planet so of course it seems reasonable to think that because we might not see a significant difference over the course of our lifetimes then it must not be that significant. But, we would be wrong and stupid to think so arrogantly. When the natural fluctuations of Earth’s climate have occurred over the course of thousands, hundreds of thousands, or even millions of years, the only insignificant thing around would be the average human lifespan. But that doesn’t preclude the possibility of having a significant impact on that climate, as all current data indicate we have increased the CO2 concentration in Earth’s atmosphere to levels never seen in several hundred thousand years.
     Point blank: We are negatively impacting Earth’s atmosphere. All evidence points directly to human activities. And if we want to still have a habitable world for generations to come, then we better get serious about transitioning from fossil fuels to carbon neutral and so-called ‘alternative’ energy sources. The debate is over. We either act now or we deserve whatever we get for being such a pathetic, potential-squandering species.


Resources
Bennett, J. O., Donahue, M., Schneider, N., & Voit, M. (2017). The cosmic perspective. Boston:
     Pearson.
Ristinen, R. A. (2016). Energy and the environment. Place of publication not identified: Nielsen
     Bookdata.
Rothery, D. A., Gilmour, I., Sephton, M. A., & Anand, M. (2011). An Introduction to 
     AstrobiologyCambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Thursday, December 6, 2018

A Sensible Energy Solution

     An assignment given in the class Energy and the Environment (Fall 2018, CU Boulder) called for students to write a letter to the CEO of an energy company as a sort of call-to-action. And if you have been following this blog and reading my content for the past several years, you'll probably understand that I wanted nothing more than to go on one of my usual tangents about how this economic model is destroying the planet; how we have a monetary system with disadvantage built right in; social stratification--you know, the things that this entire blog revolves around. But, I finally took a step back and tried to think of a transitional solution to this problem. I asked myself how I could possibly convince billionaires to reduce their massive profits to provide sensible, sustainable, clean energy solutions. Here is what I came up with:

To whom it may concern:

     It was recently calculated that several tons of arsenic are produced in the waste ash at your facility each year costing consumers millions in additional cleanup costs. While this is alarming by itself, perhaps even more frightening is the general lack of willingness among the biggest energy providers around the world to even consider a transition to other sources. So, I’ve come up with a proposition that could be the game-changer we need on this planet. A few things first, though.
     In the decades since WWII, the United States swiftly transitioned from a massive manufacturing economy to a massive service economy. But even the service industry has been overhauled recently by the rise of social media. Point blank: If your service sucks as a company in 2018, you’re going to fail faster than the time it takes to upload the viral video that destroys you. So, companies must remain at the cutting edge of social trends and keep up with consumer demand. That means meeting the wants and needs of customers—not creating monopolies and sacrificing the health of your customers and the environment in order to appease shareholders! Sure, people want (and, quite frankly, need) energy; but not at the expense of the planet their children will inherent one day. We’ve seen the charts; we’ve heard the arguments; and so have you. The data are clear. And we all know what the possibilities are with 21st century technology. So, enough with the obfuscation and doublespeak!
     When I make a purchase nowadays, there are three main things I look for in a product or service: Reliability, versatility, and quality. I want the product I purchase to actually function the way I was told it would and the services I purchase to actually be performed the way I was told. The products should also be multi-faceted and perform a wide range of functions in all-in-one packages while the services should follow suit. Finally, my products better last a long time and include lifetime warranties. Enough with planned obsolescence!
     In terms of energy, however, I have a slightly different outlook. That is, we currently have the technology and resources to transition into a global economy that produces 100% of its energy with clean, dependable, safe sources, such as solar, wind, wave, tidal, and geothermal. But, we willfully choose not to in lieu of creating markets for the shareholders of energy giants such as yours. This is wrong and detrimental to the greater population and we all know it. So, what can we do to compromise and move forward sustainably?
     The service sector I mentioned earlier is something in which you should seriously consider taking a larger role. It’s simple, really. What you can do is offer Swap-Out packages to homeowners and HOAs. Start the transition by creating a new market that offers both rentals and buy-outs for energy installation packages. Here’s how it might work:
  1. Stop putting up ridiculous billboards that say things like, “Wind stops. The sun sets. Choose coal!” Seriously. I can’t even roll my eyes hard enough to convey just how idiotic that sounds.
  2. Invest in, buy, or partner with solar, wind, wave, etc. companies.
  3. Retrain your employees at the coal-burning facilities to install and maintain solar,
    wind, wave, etc. packages (depending upon region).
  1. Work with governments (local, state, and federal) to create tax incentives to install the packages.
  2. Create contracts with customers that offer at least three options:
    1. Rental: The contract would include tiers of payments based upon the size
      installation. The packages would still be owned by your company and liability insurance would be split between the renter and your company (that is fair and we both know it). Part of the rental fees would also go toward maintenance costs (i.e. hiring the retrained coal plant employees, veterans, etc.).
    2. Buy-out: This contract would include an option to actually sell energy back to the grid and would require the homeowner to carry their own liability insurance. The packages would be fully owned by the homeowner but the maintenance would, by law, have to be conducted by you. This, of course, requires a lifetime contract. (Yes, you read that correctly: lifetime contract.) This contract must have periodic renegotiation (say, every 5 years or so) to adjust for property sales, inflation, and other economic factors. This option not only guarantees jobs to maintain the new, on-site, mini-grids on the consumers’ properties, but it also should minimize the amount of resources used to maintain the larger grid already in place.
    3. College Option: This option pays the tuition of select students choosing to pursue a career in the field of energy production. The student will be fully trained to immediately enter the work force upon graduation. Paid internships and on-the-job training will be a requirement for completion.
     I realize the markets that have been created will be upset by these changes but let’s face facts and also realize that the planet itself doesn’t care about us. Or our markets. If we think that we can continue dumping millions of tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere without building carbon sinks and also without repercussion, then, quite frankly, we are an arrogant failure of a supposedly intelligent species and we deserve the onslaught of erratic weather and geological phenomena Earth has in store for us... But, as the leader of an energy giant capable of making the decisions to swiftly make this transition we need to make, the onus truly is on you to make it happen as quickly as possible. Make the right call. Be a leader.

Sincerely,

Kyle Benjamin

Wednesday, December 5, 2018

The Search for Life in the Universe: Europa, Titan, and Enceladus


     Throughout the history of humankind, a seemingly-inherent penchant for exploration, coupled with various climatic events, has driven the proliferation of the human species across planet Earth. Whether nomadic bands of hunter-gatherers were searching for newer, more abundant sources of food, or simply exploring for its own sake, homo sapiens successfully populated the Earth through a journey that began thousands of years ago in south-central Africa and took several dozen centuries. But, even with all that humankind has accomplished, and with all the introspective and extrospective information accumulated in the past four centuries alone, there is much left to explore both on the surface and in the oceans of this majestic world. Moreover, there is an entire universe out there—unimaginably vast and just waiting to be discovered. But, humans tend to get easily distracted by both forms of intergovernmental conflict (within and between governments), wars, manufactured controversy, and a host of other trivialities, ultimately veering the species off that road to cosmic discovery. Nevertheless, space programs the world over have managed to send spacecraft on trajectories that have taken them from precariously close to the Sun1 to beyond the heliosphere of the solar system2. Several rovers have successfully descended through the Martian atmosphere34 and one on Saturn’s moon Titan5; an orbiter/lander package was even sent to an asteroid6! And, while all of this exploration has been done in the hopes of gaining a deeper understanding of how life arose on Earth and whether or not it happened elsewhere in the cosmos, an extraordinary wealth of knowledge has been amassed regarding the physical and chemical properties of the cosmos itself. But, before drawing the lines of evidence for otherworldly life in this solar system, a few questions should first be answered: What is life? Are there certain elements that are considered crucial for life? How common are these ingredients? And, what processes exist on Earth have been identified as possible catalysts for the transition from inorganic to organic molecules?

A Definition of Life

     For many centuries, philosophers the world over struggled to explain this experience called ‘life’. The elements that formed everything around were simple: earth, water, air, and fire. Life itself was viewed as something rather peculiar—especially human life. And somehow humans were supposed to strive for the good life, as Aristotle put it in his Nicomachean Ethics.7 In retrospect, however, something always seemed to be missing from these arguments: hard evidence. Thought experiments can take one but so far; it is only when unbiased physical, chemical, and biological experiments bear out the facts of reality through the accumulation of evidence that such claims should be accepted. And even then, uncertainties should always be taken into account. Perhaps this perspective seems obvious in the highly technical, information- driven world of today but it certainly wasn’t always the case. The concepts of innocent until proven guilty and evidence-based reasoning are relatively new in human history. Before the Renaissance began sometime in the 14th century, people largely took things at face value with very little thought—burning ‘witches’ alive and massacring countless ‘others’ that dared to question any form of assumed, typically divine, authority. In fact, life seemed to be defined in terms of that authority: God > kings > other humans > animals > everything else in the universe. But, this geocentric, authoritative perspective left much to be desired. Observations began to contradict doctrine which eventually led to a revolution in thinking. Life, it turned out, wasn’t so simply defined.
     Although the debate rages on today, at least in philosophical circles, biologists and chemists have in recent years joined it in an effort to standardize the definition of life. Among the many that have been posited over the decades, the definition that perhaps best encompasses humankind’s present understanding was proffered by Gerald F. Joyce in the 1990s and then included in an anthology released in 2008 called Extraterrestrials: Where are They?: “In a very broad sense, living organisms turn food into offspring. They metabolize food and use the energy derived from the food to produce offspring, that is, to produce more life. Among biologists and biochemists a working definition of ‘life’ is: ‘a self-sustained chemical system capable of undergoing Darwinian evolution’.”8 Objections to this definition remain but it suffices for the purpose of this essay.

Follow the Water

     Perhaps the most essential substance in which countless reactions can take place is water in its liquid form. Known as ‘the universal solvent’ for its ability to dissolve an array of other substances, water is a polar molecule with a negatively charged oxygen atom opposite two positively charged hydrogen atoms that are spaced 104.5° apart. This arrangement makes it “sticky”, a characteristic ultimately derived from electromagnetic forces; it also means that water is capable of conducting electricity when salts are dissolved in it. These properties prove essential in the synthesis of other molecules that could lead to self-sustaining chemical systems. Thus, the catchphrase for finding life throughout the astrobiology and space exploration community has unsurprisingly become “follow the water”.9 Since Earth harbors life everywhere liquid water exists, then a reasonable supposition would be that where there is water, there is life.



SPONCH for Life

     The chemical systems that eventually gave rise to biological entities here on Earth can be described by the acronym SPONCH. Sulfur, phosphorus, oxygen, nitrogen, carbon, and hydrogen are the key elements to life on Earth, and, considering the relative abundances of these elements throughout the universe, presumably life elsewhere. So, if a search for life in the universe is to remain as objective as possible, a focus on these six elements and the many molecules that can be made from them, as well as environments with temperatures and pressures conducive to biological processes, can be considered reasonably unbiased. Carbon, the most chemically active element on the periodic table, is the basis for millions of molecules and its ability to readily form strong, stable bonds (even with other carbon atoms and some metals) makes it the most logical choice for a molecule long-lived enough to build self-sustaining, evolving systems. Silicon is chemically similar to carbon and has also been considered as a possible basis for life; however, its weaker bonds and completely different oxidation product—the solid silicon dioxide (SiO2)— present problems with known biological processes. For example, can the polymers formed by silicon remain stable in varying environments and for long enough to become biologically active? How would the mechanism by which this solid waste product is readily removed function? And, what kinds of silicon compounds could be used as energy sources? Of course, this line of questioning could likely continue ad infinitum, but it is clear that in the prebiotic race toward ‘self-sustaining chemical systems’, carbon is the winner.
     Organic molecules are divided into large (lipid collections, carbohydrates, proteins, and nucleic acids) and small (fatty acids, sugars, amino acids, and nucleotides) varieties that perform a number of important functions in living systems. Combining these organic molecules through a process involving the loss of water is called polymerization and allows such ‘macromolecules’ to form. Both lipids, such as fats and oils, and carbohydrates called polysaccharides store energy while proteins perform a range of tasks. Nucleic acids, composed of smaller building blocks called nucleotides, are essentially the replication factories of biological molecules; deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) and ribonucleic acid (RNA) being two of the most important (Rothery, Gilmour, Sephton 2011). But, in order for living systems to perform the myriad functions necessary to subsist and for evolutionary processes to proceed, lipids and proteins form membranes within carbohydrate/amino acid ‘shells’ that maintain stable environments. Thus, it can be stated with reasonable confidence that these cells are what can be considered life. And some of the places thought to have been possible crucibles for certain forms of life are at the bottom of the ocean floor near geothermal vents called black smokers that eject superheated mixtures of water and mostly sulfides while providing an immediate environment capable of sustaining certain forms of so-called extremophiles. So, having arrived at a reasonable definition of life (of course, several details were glossed over and many others were not mentioned, such as chirality, the RNA world, panspermia, the top-down and bottom-up approaches, and the details of boundary layers), some of the most promising possible environments for its existence elsewhere in the solar system can now be examined: Jupiter’s moon Europa and Saturn’s moons Enceladus and Titan.

To the Moons of Jupiter
At 5.2 AU, Jupiter is more than five times the distance from the Sun to the Earth and gets around 25 times less solar irradiance than here on Earth. The magnetic field of this gas giant is more than 20,000 times that of Earth, making life a much more difficult prospect on the surfaces of bodies orbiting close to the planet. Dozens of moons are in orbit around the Jovian world but only the inner Galilean moons—specifically Europa—are of present interest in this search for life. Io, Europa, and Ganymede are in a 4:2:1 orbital resonance, which keeps their orbits eccentric, while Callisto has an orbital period of just under 17 days with no resonance. (Orbital resonances tend to cause tidal heating as these satellites make their way around their orbits. Moons that are mostly rocky become geologically active when presented with the stresses of tidal forces.) In fact, Io is the most geologically active body in the entire solar system with many confirmed volcanoes currently erupting. But, in cases where moons have rocky cores surrounded by thick layers of ice, the rock-ice interface presents a situation where the tidal heating causes at least some of the ice to melt and form either a localized or a global ocean. Since the surface temperature of Europa ranges from around -160 degrees Celsius at the equator to less than -220 degrees Celsius at the poles, no known life can exist there. However, if the situation is similar to that of at least portions of the Earth’s oceans, black smokers could also exist in the subsurface ocean of Europa— confirmed by the Galileo spacecraft10—providing a possible energy source on which extremophiles of some sort might thrive. Plumes ejecting material from the surface have been observed by the Hubble Space Telescope:


"The perspective that plumes on Europa are fed by a subsurface ocean offers an opportunity to study the ocean composition and investigate its habitability. Europa is widely considered one of the likeliest candidate bodies in our solar system able to support biological activity [Shapiro and Schulze-Makuch, 2009]. Due to the association of liquid water with life, biological activity would most likely be found in an ocean beneath Europa’s ice crust. The plumes offer a unique chance to directly sample subsurface material in situ from space. (Southworth, Kempf, and Schmidt, 2005)"


     The Galileo mission delivered some of the most spectacular images of Jupiter and, related specifically to this discussion, of Europa. These data revealed a moon made of water ice and silicate rock with a tenuous atmosphere of mainly oxygen and a likely iron-nickel core that, through tidal heating, is responsible for the situation of either warm ice or liquid water beneath the icy, mostly crater-free surface. Features resembling icebergs and tilted blocks on Earth are visible while a so-called “brown gunk” covers much of the crust, possibly the result of radiolysis of salts—a reasonable guess considering the thin oxygen atmosphere is almost certainly produced by the radiolysis of water. Some sort of process similar to tectonics exists on Europa, as evidenced by the stretched and cracked surface:
Figure 1: An enhanced true color image of the surface of Europa from the Galileo spacecraft. (NASA11Despite the cracking and other tidal distortions responsible for the observed plumes, Europa surprisingly boasts one of the smoothest surfaces in the solar system. It is estimated that the icy crust is only about 10 to 15 miles thick.
     A future mission with multiple flybys and perhaps several passes through the plumes themselves to collect particles for analysis could further confirm the existence of biogenic material. However, any spacecraft that orbits Jupiter must be overbuilt to some degree in order to withstand the effects of such a massive magnetic field. While electromagnetic shielding is certainly required, one failure of any component of such shielding could spell disaster for missions costing billions of dollars. And such an unfortunate event would mean that it would be several years—perhaps 10 or more—before another mission (assuming approval) could be at the Jovian system for similar investigations. Thus far, Pioneer 11 and 12, Voyager 1 and 2, Cassini- Huygens, and the Galileo missions have visited or flown past Jupiter giving us new perspectives and new insights each time as successive spacecraft were equipped with better instrumentation. NASA’s proposed Europa Clipper Mission is supposed to launch sometime in the 2020s and is host to a suite of scientific instrumentation focused on studying this possible abode for life12, including an ice-penetrating radar to accurately determine the thickness of Europa’s crust.13 Landing a rover on the surface of Europa would be a herculean undertaking filled with serious risks involving electromagnetic shielding and choosing the proper landing location. However, it is well within the realm of possibilities given the current state of technology. And, finding life anywhere outside of Earth would perhaps be the most important human discovery of all time. So, the possible reward seems to far outweigh the risks involved in such an important mission. Other possibilities where life might have developed separately are Saturn’s icy moon Enceladus and its large moon Titan.

The Jewel of the Solar System
Figure 2:
Figure 2: The first colored image from the

Huygens lander of the surface of Titan. The

Cobbles are water ice. (NASA - Dr. David R.

Williams.)
On October 15th, 1997, the Cassini-Huygens spacecraft launched from Cape Canaveral Air Force station in Florida with the goal of studying the Saturnian system. A collaborative mission between the European Space Agency, the Italian Space Agency, and NASA, the spacecraft reached Saturn June 30th, 2004.14 The Cassini orbiter and Huygens lander were both successful; the former having now delivered nearly 20 years’ worth of data; so much that it is still being analyzed over a year after making its dramatic “Grand Finale” plunge into Saturn to avoid contaminating any moons that might harbor life. The Huygens lander was delivered to the moon Titan—the second largest moon in the solar system—and successfully landed January 14th2005.15 Through radar imaging, Titan showed signs of prebiotic chemistry, cryovolcanism, impact cratering, and dune field formation. Among the most fascinating discoveries have been the presence of methane lakes and that methane functions similarly to the way water functions on Earth in the hydrologic cycle; there might even be an underground ocean of liquid water with hydrothermal vents. The atmosphere is composed of nitrogen (about 96%), methane, and ethane, and has a pressure of 1.5 bar at the surface, similar to that on the surface of Earth. As well, Titan has a thick photochemical smog layer in the upper-middle part of the atmosphere. In short, all of ingredients necessary for life exist on Titan.16 Extending far beyond its original mission, the Cassini orbiter has provided some of the most spectacular images ever taken of another planetary body. It is no wonder that Saturn is known as The Jewel of the Solar System:

Figure 2: January 19, 2013 - This is a composite of images taken through red, green, and blue filters that shows the F, G, and E rings from around 753,000 miles from Saturn. The pale blue dot of Earth is shown toward the lower right of the image indicated by the white arrow. (PIA17171; Published July 22, 2013.)17
At around 300 miles across, the small, icy moon Enceladus is about the size of Colorado and has been identified as a second possibility for life, due to the likely existence of a subsurface ocean. By 2008, a set of geologic features dubbed tiger stripes were identified in the southern hemisphere. These so-called tiger stripes are at least 100 degrees Celsius warmer than the surrounding surface, indicating some type of geologic heating (likely tidal). In December of 2011, a series of high resolution images were taken of Enceladus. But, one of the most breathtaking views of this Saturnian satellite was taken over a year before on November 30th, 2010 and clearly shows geysers erupting from the surface:
Figure 3: Taken with the narrow-angle camera, this Cassini image across Enceladus’ south pole shows a series of geysers erupting. The Cassini orbiter eventually flew through these plumes to analyze their composition, identifying organic compounds, volatile gases, water vapor, silica, CO, CO2, and salts.1819 A few theories have attempted to model these geysers and are detailed by Southworth, Kempf, and Schmidt (2015) in a paper regarding both Europa and Enceladus.20
Future missions to the Saturnian system would likely put significant focus on this small but promising world. Investigations of a next-generation orbiter could include a dust collector for proper analysis of plume ejecta—responsible for Saturn’s E ring—and several high-resolution imaging systems across the range of spectra. A lander would make exploration of the surface and possible subsurface ocean much more fruitful in its returns since only so much can be learned from orbit. However, finding a landing site free from debris or giant, spikey ridges will doubtless be extremely challenging. It might require including instrumentation to analyze imaging data in real-time and then choosing a landing site. Next, the challenge of driving a rover on a moon that is almost 750 million miles from Earth would perhaps be just as exciting as successfully landing one there. But, the insight gained from such an endeavor would certainly prove invaluable—a mission well worth the financial undertaking. For example, a seismometer can be utilized to determine the internal structure as the moon is stressed under tidal forces, possibly answering the question of the source of Enceladus’ geysers definitively. And the rover could drill into the icy surface or release a tethered, shielded piece of radioactive material onto it to melt through; perhaps to eventually reach an underground ocean and explore via a tethered submersible. The possibilities are only limited by the resources involved in conducting such missions.

A Brief Comparison of Europa and Enceladus

     With all that has been discovered about each of these moons, Europa and Enceladus present very different challenges that must be taken into account—especially if a budgeting issue forces a decision for one mission over the other. Jupiter is closer and Europa has been officially considered the most likely place in the solar system for life, but Jupiter’s huge magnetic field presents a significant engineering problem for probes and rovers moving through it. Saturn is almost twice the distance of Jupiter so it receives far less solar radiation but has a much smaller magnetic field requiring far less shielding, as evidenced by the Cassini-Huygens mission. Europa is also around six times the diameter and has an escape velocity nine times that of Enceladus. So, it is clear that many factors must be considered in a massive cost-benefit analysis if such a choice must be made.


Final Thoughts

     In any case, one thing is certain: In the search for life in the universe, a return to both Europa and Enceladus is necessary, while a return to Titan would likely prove useful. It is absolutely amazing what has been accomplished by the space program in the United States considering the budget constraints over the past 50 years. To put it into perspective, the proposed defense budget for FY2018 was around $640-billion21 while NASA’s proposed budget for the same fiscal year sits at just over $19-billion22. It appears plenty of funding exists to drop bombs on people around the world that are different but the coffers apparently come up short when budgeting for planetary exploration that could prove just how similar humans are at a fundamental level. But, with the advent of the privatization of space, perhaps in just a few years some of the companies that have established themselves in the past decade or so, such as SpaceX and Blue Origin, will see the value in such exploration and aim for these possible abodes for life. There is no doubt that such a discovery will be considered the greatest achievement of humankind: It would mean we definitely are not alone. From there it is easy to follow the lines of logic to begin asking questions about intelligence. With thousands of exoplanets already confirmed, and an entire universe presumably filled with innumerable others, the likelihood of intelligent life existing elsewhere in the cosmos might just be inevitable.


Resources
Aristotle. (2009). The Nichomachean Ethics (D. Ross, Trans.). London: Oxford University Press.
         Diamond, J. M. (1999). Guns, germs, and steel: The fates of human societies. New York: W.W.           Norton & Company.
Joyce, Gerald F. (1993), The RNA World: Life before DNA and Protein, Website,                                         https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19980211165.pdf.
Rothery, D. A., Gilmour, I., Sephton, M. A., & Anand, M. (2011). An Introduction to Astrobiology.             Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Southworth, B. S., S. Kempf, and J. Schmidt (2015), Modeling Europa’s dust plumes, Geophys. Res.           Lett.,42, 10,541–10,548, doi:10.1002/2015GL066502
Shapiro, R., and D. Schulze-Makuch (2009), The search for alien life in our solar system: Strategies             and priorities, Astrobiology, 9, 335-343, doi: 10.1089/ast.2008.0281.
Zuckerman, B., & Hart, M. H. (Eds.). (2008). Extraterrestrials: Where are they? Cambridge:                       Cambridge University Press.

Web, Online Journal, and Other Sources
  1. http://parkersolarprobe.jhuapl.edu/
  2. https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/
  3. https://mars.nasa.gov/mer/home/
      4. https://mars.nasa.gov/msl/
  1. https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/missions/cassini/overview/
  2. http://sci.esa.int/rosetta/
  3. http://classics.mit.edu/Aristotle/nicomachaen.html
  4. https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19980211165.pdf
  5. https://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/everydaylife/jamestown-water-fs.html
  6. https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/missions/galileo/overview/
  7. https://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA19048
  8. https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/jupiter-moons/europa/in-depth/
  9. https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/europa-clipper/
  10. https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/cassini-huygens/
  11. https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/titan_images.html
  12. Notes from ASTR2040, Fall 2016.
  13. https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/resources/15868/the-day-the-earth-smiled-sneak-
    preview-annotated/
  14. https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/news/13020/the-moon-with-the-plume/
  15. https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/resources/16074/encroaching-shadow/
  16. https://agupubs-onlinelibrary-wiley-
    com.colorado.idm.oclc.org/doi/epdf/10.1002/2015GL066502
  17. https://csbaonline.org/research/publications/senator-mccain-and-outlining-the-fy18-
    defense-budget
  18. https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/fy_2018_budget_estimates.pdf


Tuesday, October 9, 2018

Space Science: Practice and Policy

My Spring 2018 semester at CU Boulder I took a class in which we talked about the past, present, and future of human exploration in space. Taught by Dr. Larry Esposito, the class was designed to introduce students to the policies that have influenced the proliferation of the aerospace industry around the world since the derivation of the rocket equation. Each week two teams of three would debate pre-determined topics, such as 'Global Cooperation or Competition in Space?' and 'Should Astronauts Return to the Moon?', in the following format: Each team had 15 minutes to present their initial arguments (five minutes for each person on each side). One team would argue the 'Pro' side and the other team would argue the 'Con' side. Then the teams had 10 minutes each for Rebuttals with a final round of Summaries lasting three minutes per team. With the remaining class time, the panels would be open for questions. As well, each student was required to give a 10 minute presentation at the end of the semester about a topic of their choice.
     Both topics I debated had to do with the ideas of competition and cooperation while my final presentation examined the contrasts between our current global economic model and a Resource Based Economy. (If you've been following my blog for a few years, you likely understand that I chose cooperation over competition and will be a proponent for cooperation over competition for the rest of my life.) Of course, it might be considered a bit distasteful and boring to read from a script, but I had so much information to dive into during my debates that I managed to speak faster than I've ever spoken before: roughly 1600 words in just under 10 minutes for each debate! (Don't believe that's quick? Try reading from a script in front of a room of 30 people without mispronouncing a word or stumbling!) I even anticipated the usual, cliche arguments from the competition side! And, now I've decided to share with everyone both debate scripts as well as my final presentation script.
    
First Topic: Global Cooperation vs Competition in Space

Buckminster Fuller is quoted as saying, “You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.” As a futurist, Fuller was heavily invested in the idea of human cooperation and spent much of his life advocating for a highly technical global society. He recognized the massive social benefit of programs such as Apollo and how these programs provide unmistakably strong evidence in support of cooperation. Fuller explains,


The strictly government-operated NASA Apollo Project… employed business’s industrial facilities but was a human-endeavor cooperating project. It held at bay any importantly diverting manifests of selfishness, even amongst its dramatically publicized astronauts. Their individual names have faded into a dim admixture of identities—omnisublimated by the magnificent demonstration of humanity’s industrially cooperative capability to accomplish history’s most imaginatively “impossible,” scientifically “possible” feat—rocket-ferrying of humans over to the Moon and returning them safely back on board our Spaceship Earth. (Fuller, p. 241)

Indeed, the landing on and safe return from the Moon by astronauts is perhaps one of humankind’s crowning achievements. It required a massive, concerted effort of thousands of people from around the world. Without the input of von Braun, however, it is unclear how advanced the space program in the United States would have been by the end of the 1960s. One thing is certain: The competition for nuclear superiority was at the forefront of thinking for more than thirty years. In that time, NASA was established and quickly grew to 4% of the national budget; steadily declining ever since. It is through this massive investment in space science that we were able to plan and eventually execute the missions that changed the course of human history. According to Carl Sagan in his 1980 book Cosmos, “The total cost of a mission such as Viking to Mars, or Voyager to the outer solar system, is less than that of the 1979-80 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Through technical employment and the stimulation of high technology, money spent on space exploration has an economic multiplier effect. (Sagan, p. 285)”
So, we are certainly capable as a species of bridging our differences for common goals. In Red Sky at Morning, James Speth argues, “Strong personal leadership from outstanding individuals has proven essential in forging many global-scale agreements… A major focusing event was when the ozone hole was discovered over Antarctica… The United States and other governments showed a willingness to compromise. (Speth, p. 94)” Perhaps one of the only fully realized global efforts, the call to end the use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), proved that, with proper leadership roles filled and an adequately informed citizenry, humans are more than capable of resolving massive issues in a relatively short amount of time. Unfortunately, the excitement surrounding the proof-of-concept that cooperative resolution actually works was short-lived and the United States has failed to take the lead on virtually every environmental issue since .
Today, nearly half the population of the world is connected to what I personally consider humankind’s single greatest achievement: the Internet. The Internet has become a fundamental necessity in the First World and is being quickly integrated into the fabric of Third World nations. We are almost fully connected on a global scale—capable yet not fully implemented. But, this type of technology easily reveals the shortcomings of a highly competitive, increasingly polarized society: We are easily swayed by visceral reactions and even more easily distracted by the massive influx of both information and trivialities. For example, how can we have instant access to the entirety of humankind’s knowledge base, yet at the same time allow thousands of people to starve to death daily? Clearly, there is a violent clash between emergent technologies and the retention of traditional practices in the 21st century. There also seems to be a disconnect between the development and the implementation of such increasingly powerful innovations, many of which arise as a direct result of space science funding, e.g. GPS and food preservation techniques, to name just two.
These disconnects spill over into nearly every other facet of society, including our desire to explore space.  It can certainly be argued that competition was the driving factor behind the rapid development of our space programs. However, it must also be acknowledged that over the decades since, researchers around the world have heavily studied the effects of cooperative versus competitive environments on achievement and have found, unsurprisingly, that, while competition clearly works for achieving goals (we did, after all, land on the Moon), it is actually cooperation that produces optimal outcomes.
It can easily be argued that if funding were to increase significantly, the problems of building bases on the Moon, on Mars, and beyond could be easily solved. There seems to be no limit to human ingenuity. Many of us grew up watching an assortment of sci-fi shows, such as Star Trek, depicting what humankind’s adventures into deep space might look like. While the crews of these interstellar spaceships often found themselves in compromising positions, a common thread was woven throughout each series: Survival and social cohesion were ultimately the result of effective cooperation. Another important message to take away from these types of shows is that of a paradigm shift away from the mindset of infinite growth and into a steady-state mindset of preservation.
“To realize such a future, societies will have to free themselves from a variety of pernicious habits of thought, including the enchantment of limitless material expansion and what John Kenneth Galbraith has called, “highly contrived consumption of an infinite variety of goods and services. (Speth, p. 192)”

REBUTTAL
In a 1981 paper by Johnson, Maruyama, Johnson, and Nelson entitled, “Effects of Cooperative, Competitive, and Individualistic Goal Structures on Achievement: A Meta-Analysis,” the researchers, using a comparison of four conditions—cooperation, cooperation with intergroup competition, interpersonal competition, and individualistic effort—found that, through the methods implemented, “These results confirm the superiority of cooperation over both competitive and individualistic efforts and indicate that there is essentially no difference between the effects of interpersonal competitive and individualistic efforts on achievement. (Johnson, et al., 1981)”
So, the competitive market-based model we currently utilize on a global scale can be described as “failing to meet the needs of the world’s people.” It also fails to provide a direct incentive to explore space outside of the context of the market-based logic calling for extracting resources and selling them for profit. But, it’s not an easy subject to address as a world leader. How does, say, an American president advocate for global cooperation in, for example, space exploration while simultaneously leading the world in dropping bombs from drones? How do we address the problems that arise through nationalistic fervor when advocating for a globally cooperative citizenry? Bucky Fuller realized this folly and stated, “If any president of the United States or prime minister of any other quasi democracy even so much as discussed possibilities of de-sovereignizing, he or she would be immediately impeached (Fuller, p. 287).”  So, it’s not an easy thing to talk about, especially when competition is the only kind of system in which we’ve developed globally. As Abraham Maslow stated, “I suppose it is tempting, if the only tool you have is a hammer, to treat everything as if it were a nail. (Maslow, p. 15)”
But, our tools are no longer limited to the physical world. We now conduct much of our business and human-human interaction in the digital realm. And it is within this realm that the true power of open source ideology has been realized. Through sites such as Stack Overflow, Arduino, Wikipedia, and Python, we are able to share increasingly vast amounts of information with the world for free. And with the checks and peer-reviews of any updates offered, there is little incentive or likelihood for data corruption. It’s not an impossible engineering task to expand this concept to the physical world to, say, an automated transportation system which connects people to their destinations faster and more efficiently than ever before. As Jacque Fresco said, “We have to put our minds to this as we did to put a man on the Moon.” The concept can be extended for both planetary and off-world needs.
(Cosmos) “Human history can be viewed as a slowly dawning awareness that we are members of a larger group. Initially our loyalties were to ourselves and our immediate family, next, to bands of hunter-gatherers, then to tribes, small settlements, city-states, nations. We have broadened the circle of those we love. We have now organized what are modestly described as superpowers, which include people from divergent ethnic and cultural backgrounds working in some sense together—surely a humanizing and character-building experience. If we are to survive, our loyalties must be broadened further to include the whole human community, the entire planet Earth. Many of those who run the nations will find this idea unpleasant. They will fear the loss of power. We will hear much about treason and disloyalty. Rich nation-states will have to share their wealth with poor ones. But the choice, as H.G. Wells once said in a different context, is clearly the universe or nothing. (Sagan, p. 283)"

Second Topic: Space Can Improve Competitiveness

When discussing human activities in space, conversations tend to revolve around a few basic concepts. First, the militarization of space seems to be a constant hot topic which stands as a testament to human belligerence. Second, the prospect of prospecting for minerals and precious metals, for example on asteroids, has led certain experts to value these traveling wellsprings of material at quadrillions of dollars! Third, the competitive model espoused by the capitalist/free market mentality is repeatedly touted as the be all end all of economic models. So it only seems logical to extend these principles into the ‘final frontier’ of spaceOn Earth, however, this predatory system is actually rife with failures and corruption, perpetuating the inherently divisive ideology of social stratification--a still-thriving remnant of the days of kings and lords. Fourth, since extinction-level impactors are zipping around the solar system, many ideas have been offered over the decades to prevent one from hitting Earth, ranging from blowing them up (probably not the best idea) to simply pushing them into a different orbit. Lastly, perhaps the basis for all that we’ll ever do as a species, exploration has been at the forefront of human thinking for thousands of years.

Military Competition in Space
Even before the rockets capable of leaving Earth’s atmosphere were designed and built, scientists and science fiction writers alike talked about technological progression and how intimately it can be tied to a seemingly-unfettered desire to kill one another. From H.G. Wells’ atomic bombs and Nikola Tesla’s death rays to the actualization of thermonuclear warheads and directed energy weapons, human civilization appears hellbent on self-destruction under the guise of “terrorism prevention” and in the name of conquering insignificant pieces of this larger, yet equally insignificant, piece of space dust. Apparently, so the story goes, we’re incapable of cooperating on this planet without pointing giant weapons at each other and threatening global destruction. And somehow--as if by some magical “invisible hand”--market competition actually improves this situation. Meanwhile, here in reality, free market capitalism, free enterprise, laissez-faire--whatever you want to call it--has revealed itself over the course of the past two centuries to be arguably the most environmentally destructive ideology ever put into practice on this planet. Now, don’t get me wrong, we have developed some pretty incredible advancements across a wide number of fields. And it would be foolish to say that capitalism had nothing at all to do with it. But, we must step back, take a broad view, and realize that practically every critical system on this planet is currently in decline. And there is a common thread: the idea of infinite economic growth.
It is an unfortunate truth that many military campaigns throughout history have been directed toward land and resource acquisition at any cost. Just try and imagine this mentality extending into resource acquisition and control in space! Could it be only a matter of time before a military power reaches space and declares, “The rules have changed! We’re in charge now! WE OWN EARTH! WHO’S GONNA STOP US?”? That kind of throws a big wrench in the idea of mutually assured destruction. While nonarmament agreements such as the Outer Space Treaty have been put into place to prevent the weaponization of space, the modern practice of corporate and interest-group lobbying makes the likelihood of withdrawal from or abandonment of such treaties practically an inevitability. And with military operations shrouded in secrecy, it’s not a far stretch of the imagination to suggest that space-based weapons systems already exist.
So, I’m failing to see how military in space can improve competitiveness. We know that when militaries compete on Earth, men, women, and children die so what does that look like in space? Surely a military superpower based in space isn’t going to want to allow others the same ultimate advantage! Just think about it for a moment--militaries already don’t want to share weapons technology and airspace down here! But competition in space is somehow going to improve by moving militaries there? I disagree. It seems this is a dangerous approach because there are probably only a few things that can effectively be ‘improved’ by such a program: Paranoia. Secrecy. Inflated egos. Black funds. Destructiveness of weapons. The influence of decreasingly factual propaganda. Dare I ask, What could possibly go wrong?

Economic Ramifications
Economists around the world boast about the superiority of competition in economic models while routinely couching explanations of any negative impacts in flowery language such as externalities. However, the burdens of negative externalities caused by industrial activities rarely, if ever, fall upon the infractors. Rather, those costs are passed along to the consumer or to the environment itself. An example would be the introduction of pop tabs in the 1950s and the discovery of the subsequent accumulation of those tabs on the ocean floor. But, what would a negative externality look like in space?
Let’s say that sometime in the future, a space-mining company decides to haul an asteroid rich in precious metals to Earth orbit. But, someone miscalculated. Even with all the fail-safes in place, something goes horribly awry and the craft is unable to maneuver the asteroid into a proper orbit. Instead, the craft and a 0.5 km wide asteroid are now on an unpredicted collision course with Earth. Negative externality? Sure. You can’t feel the effects of that one if everyone’s dead!
Now let’s say that the orbital insertion was a success and mining operations have begun. If the company starts delivering hundreds or thousands of tons of, say, platinum, what happens to the value per ounce down on the surface? What about the Earth-based mining workers? Where is the improvement of competitiveness and what happens to the economy itself with a massive influx of previously rare metals from a single entity? Perhaps artificial scarcity will continue to be a thing and drive profits like in the diamond industry today. Of course this leads to the possibility that a particular company or government will monopolize certain aspects of space and refuse to share proprietary information.
The Apollo program is a perfect example of how one massive but successful first mission--the first to land on the Moon--can immediately elevate an entity to a global superpower even after several other firsts were achieved by others. It is not, however, an example of improved competitiveness, although at first glance it seems to be. Racing to gain the ultimate upper hand in space because we’re already threatening each other with nuclear weapons isn’t an improvement by any stretch of the word. What is gained? What is lost? What is overlooked? And does it matter? Carl Sagan was one of the most insightful thinkers in modern times. In his book Pale Blue Dot, he had this to say: “For me, the most ironic token of that moment in history is the plaque signed by President Richard M. Nixon that Apollo 11 took to the moon. It reads, ‘We came in peace for all Mankind.’ As the United States was dropping seven and a half megatons of conventional explosives on small nations in Southeast Asia, we congratulated ourselves on our humanity. We would harm no one on a lifeless rock.”  

Rebuttal
            After being awarded the Special Fundamental Physics Prize, Stephen Hawking wrote, “No one undertakes research in physics with the intention of winning a prize. It is the joy of discovering something no one knew before.” But, I would argue that this concept isn’t exclusive to physics. The drive to explore for the sake of discovery has been foundational to the proliferation of humankind across the globe. But some would go so far as to say that competition is part of something called human nature. Competition might have been relevant to homo sapiens on the plains of Africa tens of thousands of years ago but today the concept is simply a contrivance of inefficient socioeconomic values. Why? Two reasons: First, when people talk about the idea of human nature, almost 100% of the time what they are really talking about is human behavior. But conflating these terms is dangerous considering that, when someone is deemed to be a certain way by nature, it becomes almost nonchalant to simply dismiss them as irreparable and/or dehumanize them. Second, competition is driven by scarcity. That is, the more scarce a product or resource, the higher its value and the more people and companies that need those products and resources will compete for them. But, we have developed technology to a point of automation and have effectively made scarcity obsolete. We’ve even created synthetic materials to reduce the use and waste of natural resources. And if an asteroid is towed to Earth and mined, the massive influx of materials, by this very same market logic, would drive the prices so low that competition might not be viable. So I disagree with the premise that we are inherently competitive. Competitive values are taught.
            Whereas our current economic model is based upon competition with pockets of cooperation, I advocate an inversion in that we could instead base our economic model on cooperation with pockets of competition. If our underlying goal is to share information, discoveries, and technology while becoming a space-faring global civilization, then a cooperative ideology is a prerequisite. Again, it is asinine to continue believing the lie that the only way for us to not kill each other is to threaten mutual destruction. This is a petty, immature mindset of which we should be ashamed for wanting to spread into space. As Carl Sagan famously stated in his book Cosmos, “We are like butterflies that flutter for a day and think it is forever.”

Final Presentation: Economics in the 21st Century

Good Afternoon, Everyone! The title of this presentation is 'Economics in the 21st Century'.

     You might be wondering why I chose to talk about economics in a class about space. Well, we’ve spent the past 15 weeks examining the history and possible future of space missions. And one of the recurring themes has been the massive budgets those missions require. Some missions alone have stretched into several billion dollars; but that was before private companies like Blue Origin and Space X were permitted to enter a sort of new space race. With promises to cut the transportation costs to space to a fraction of today’s roughly $10,000 per pound, and with ambitious ideas to mine asteroids for an abundance of useful metals, an economic model thriving on scarcity, yet promoting growth—arguably today’s Market model—inevitably faces an uncertain future. But, instead of examining this model within the context of traditional economic jargon—GDP, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Consumer Price Index, and many, many others—I’m going to present a comparison of the current Market model to a new model.

     Let’s start with the basics. What's the point of an economy? To economize, of course! At its very core, an economy should seek to avoid waste everywhere possible. So, can we say that our current market economy avoids waste, well, anywhere? Unfortunately, the answer is no. In fact, there is entire industry that profits from waste so it can be confidently stated, and without exaggeration, that waste is good for the market economy. The more waste we produce the better; for, it means someone will have a job. This is just one example of many that seems to indicate that a Market economy is really just an anti-economy. But, there is an alternative that actually lives up to its name and appears capable of solving most of the problems that manifest as a result of market economics: A Resource Based Economy. Throughout this brief exercise, I will be examining a few specific topics within the context of each model while asking the following questions: How does each model address the issue? And, Which model is more economical?

     First, let’s talk about human interrelations. In an RBE, the relationships people build with one another tend to be focused on collaboration and the sharing of ideas and resources. There is an understanding that we are on this planet as a single species among millions and must work together to reduce waste and reduce suffering. An environment is maintained where everyone is raised to their highest potential while machine automation provides strategic access to the necessities of life to everyone on the planet. On the other hand, in a market economy, people tend to be far more individualistic and geared toward maximizing their self-interest, constantly buying more products, or "gaining the upper hand" when it comes to everything from job positions to basic opinions about irrelevant, inconsequential topics. "As long as I take care of my own..." you'll hear people repeat. "Pull yourself up by the bootstraps" is another favorite. It sounds harsh and unrealistic but at the foundational level, the truth is: if you don't serve an adequate function in this market economy, you might as well die because you're on your own unless someone is feeling generous.

     Next, what about growth? An RBE recognizes the Earth as a finite system that can generally be thought of as being closed. In other words, what's here is what we've got and we should do our best to preserve all of it. That means developing alternative resources, recycling, and designing products for maximum lifetimes so that overall consumption goes down. In stark contrast, a market economy is situated firmly on the ideas of infinite growth and constant turnover. Products are mass produced irrespective of raw resource supply--many of which find their way into landfills not long after. But as long as we increase consumption, we can measure the health of the economy in terms of GDP and turn a blind eye to any negative externalities. As an example, if a group of us became stranded on an island with limited resources, would we want to implement a system that tries to use up those resources as quickly as possible or would preservation be the critical component for our survival?

     What about Property? In an RBE, people would have strategic access to the necessities of life. Open source sharing of ideas and products is much more efficient and much less wasteful. Does it make any sense to claim that everyone on the planet wants or needs one of everything ever produced? Of course not! As well, does it make any sense to buy a car to then have it sit for 50% or more of the time wasting its functional utility in a parking lot? The idea of property is ultimately a contrivance as none of the crap we accumulate throughout our lives goes with us when we die. In other words, everything is transient--even our bodies. Accumulating vast amounts of wealth and resources while restricting others' access to those resources for profit is seen as counter to responsible resource management. But this is exactly what a market economy demands and rewards. The metric for success tends to be measured in terms of purchasing power; the more property you have, the more applause you are supposed to receive. If you can patent an idea or copyright a certain work, you can restrict others' access to those ideas and works to generate profit. Again, this is more an anti-economy than anything. But, how would we address the production and distribution of resources with an emphasis on strategic access?

     The technology that has been developed over the course of the past century is mind-boggling. We are currently capable of automating a majority of industries in existence today. A Resource Based Economy thrives on automation, replacing human labor in as many sectors as quickly as possible. The idea is to free humans from drudgery and dangerous jobs so they can pursue self-fulfillment in life. What does that mean? Think about all the things you've been interested in throughout your life but were told not to pursue because they wouldn't make you money, or a living, or were unrealistic or out of reach according to someone else. If you're asking the question, What would people do in such a system of access? I'll simply throw it right back to you: What would YOU do if you didn't have to clock into the dictatorship 40 hours or more a week? Are YOU going to sit around and do nothing? Anyway, in terms of getting goods to people, equal distribution certainly doesn't make sense for any system because people don't have equal needs or wants. Rather, through the use of strategic access centers, people could have all the fundamental goods and services available to them in an efficient, equitable system. No debt, no barter, no trade; simply access. Automated delivery systems could be in place to maximize efficiency. Conversely, a Market economy relies on the classical ideas of labor for income and supply & demand to produce and distribute goods. We've even allowed ourselves to be convinced by the 18th century economist Adam Smith that there is some sort of "invisible hand" that waves away our economic woes. So, we mass produce inferior goods in the hopes of manufacturing public interest through strategic marketing and then hire people to sit in a chair driving this crap all over the world in planes, trains, and trucks--a pointless exercise outside the context of labor for income. Nevertheless, regardless of the brand, the products are inferior the moment they are produced because optimal design, production, and distribution are stifled in every stage of the process by something called cost efficiency. In a nutshell, in order to make a product and remain competitive, companies must cut costs along every step of the way. This inevitably reduces the quality of every single product on the market, increasing the amount of waste as products break down and are thrown away. An anti-economy indeed!

     In fact, here is a chart detailing the inverse relationship between manufacturing employment and manufacturing production from 1947 to 2011. As we can see, it was around the year 2000 when manufacturing employment sharply declined as more companies began automating processes. In a much longer presentation, I would further examine the ramifications of this phenomenon but I want to bring this full circle and talk about space.
     Jacque Fresco, the developer of the Resource Based Economic model, spent the majority of his time focused on ways to improve the standard of living on the surface of Earth. But it is remarkably easy to see how extending this value system into space is simply a matter of scaling. While we still have much to explore on Earth and in the oceans, the infinitude of space presents boundless opportunities for exploration and learning. With a framework of collaboration and open source sharing of ideas, the costs and risks of going into space could be drastically reduced in a matter of years. The discoveries made and technologies developed would be implemented in society as quickly as possible to benefit all instead of hoarding secrets in the name of strategic advantage. If, for example, we decided to mine asteroids in an RBE, the goal would be to promote resource and land preservation on the surface; not simply supplement mining operations there. The idea is that there are NO final frontiers and there will always be something to discover and learn. But, what about our market model?

     We've learned this semester that the space race of the 50s and 60s was essentially the result of the United States competing with the Soviets for global military superiority. These governments spent many billions of dollars in the hopes of proving that they were the ultimate leaders of the world. In the end, the US won and first landed boots on the Moon July 20th, 1969. Unfortunately, we seem to have gotten distracted because the last boots to step on the Moon were just 3 years later in 1972. We've been busy pointing arsenals of nuclear weapons at each other. Luckily, over the course of the past decade and a half, there has been a resurgence of interest in becoming a space-faring civilization. But, we're still using an antiquated market model. While companies such as Space X are vowing to permanently reduce production and flight costs, we've managed to completely avoid discussing the very real economic ramifications of such actions. And asteroid mining? How in the world would an economic model thriving on scarcity deal with trillions of dollars worth of product being introduced at once? Quite simply, it can't. Automation puts people out of jobs in this model.

     So, in conclusion, as we swiftly move into the full swing of the Digital Age, we must prepare ourselves for a transition into a new economic model--one that uses 21st century ideas to tackle our 21st century problems. We must develop new methods of production and distribution, provide strategic access to goods and services, and raise the standard of living for every human on the planet. Anything less will simply be the same cycle of exploitative methods we've been using for thousands of years. With that, I leave you with two quotes from the man himself, Jacque Fresco: "If we are genuinely concerned about the environment and the fellow human beings, and want to end territorial disputes, war, crime, poverty, hunger, and the other problems that confront us today, the intelligent use of science and technology are the tools with which to achieve a new direction--one that will serve all people, not just a select few." And, finally, "If you think we can't change the world, it just means you're not one of those that will." Thank you!