Recently, I calculated an estimate to the number of extrasolar planets that may harbor intelligent life. Although the method I implemented is rather crude, the results are staggering. According to astronomers, there are an estimated 300 billion (3.0 x 10^11) galaxies in the known universe. (That number has fluctuated between 100 and 500 billion over the decades, but for simplicity’s sake, I will use 300 billion.) Each galaxy contains about 3.0 x 10^11 stars. Multiply these and you get 9.0 x 10^22, or 90,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (90 sextillion) stars in the known universe. Around ninety percent of these stars are main sequence stars—stars in the most stable part of their lives that release energy by fusing hydrogen into helium. This leaves 81,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (81 sextillion) stars. If only 1,000,000,000th of these are like our sun, we are left with 81,000,000,000,000 (81 trillion) stars. About one percent of those stars, 810,000,000,000 (810 billion), should have planetary systems orbiting. One percent of those planetary systems, or 8,100,000,000 (8.1 billion), may yield at least one planet at a distance of what is known as “the goldilocks zone.” If one percent of those have atmospheres similar in composition, then at least one percent of those more than likely harbor some form of life—810,000. Finally, we can conclude that it is highly probable that more than one percent of those planets harbor intelligent life; however, if we were to be extremely modest and say that only one percent of one percent of these Earth-like planets have intelligent life, we are still left with 80 other planets that could have civilizations with technology well beyond that of our own here on Earth. The civilizations advanced enough technologically to populate other inhabitable planets mean that the number of planets that actually have life could be in the thousands or even tens of thousands. Even this number fails to account for the moons of giant planets that orbit stars at a distance that would allow for microbial growth or support a habitable environment. Our celestial neighbor Jupiter, a giant planet which can fit over 1300 Earths inside, boasts 63 moons. In fact, Jupiter’s moon, Europa, has been one of the most intriguing objects in the cosmos to many of the world’s astronomers. The reason: water. Scientists believe that Europa’s icy surface floats atop an ocean of liquid water. In the scientific community, the rule of thumb has been ‘where there is water, there is probably life.’ The problem: funding. It costs around $10000 per pound to send packages into space, for a grand total of right around $1.2 billion for each mission. NASA is a government-funded program with a budget of roughly $18 billion each year, which creates a far-too-limited number of research and development projects that have the potential to propel us into the future that boasts what is known only in the pages of science fiction novels. But, just imagine if we found life thriving on the moon of a giant planet in our very own solar system. When this happens, as I am confident it will within the next two or three decades, it will be the most important discovery ever made by Humankind—we are not alone. It could be the final piece in the puzzle of trying to understand how to understand Humankind’s purpose in the Universe. Maybe that is not enough for some of you, so I will throw in a few more hard facts that are confirmed by a consortium of astronomers around the world.
If you think about it, we are merely one particular miniscule product of an extremely long and complicated chain of events, in our understood version of time (which is a topic that could literally fill volumes), following a massive stellar explosion that happened roughly 5 billion years ago. This explosion produced many higher elements through a process, that is also present in Supergiant stars, known as nucleosynthesis, and can be accounted for by analyzing the fact that our own star, the Sun, contains some of these higher elements. This can only mean, through our observations and accepted theories, that when the Sun was a protostar—a region of extremely compact gas that is not yet dense enough to begin nuclear fusion of hydrogen—all of the gas being collected was that of a star that blew up in a supernova explosion more than 5 billion years ago. The original star probably was an extremely massive first generation star (based on a 13.7 billion year old known Universe) that exhausted its nuclear fuel very rapidly and then blew off its outer shells as supernovae, seeding the surrounding area of the universe with copious amounts of elements that would eventually be, in a sense, recycled through the formation of many further generations of stars, including the Sun. If the Sun was what is known as a first generation star we would not detect higher elements in the atmosphere. What we must remember, though, is that the Sun is just an average, relatively ordinary star which will eventually exhaust its massive storehouse of hydrogen gas through a specific nuclear fusion process known as the proton-proton chain. The estimated lifetime of a star similar in size and composition to the Sun is about 10 billion years. Already, scientists have postulated and agreed, 4.5 billion years have passed. So, we have 5.5 billion years to achieve a level of understanding that will allow us to relocate to another planet with a habitable environment; given we do not eradicate all life on Earth, including ourselves, long before then. To put all of this into perspective, Human Beings have been evolving for a little over 1 million years; written language is known to have been used in communication for over 10000 years; the Egyptian pyramids were built between 3000-5000 years ago; Newton began his groundbreaking work in Physics over 300 years ago; the industrial revolution was about 150 years ago; the automobile was invented roughly 100 years ago; Humans only live an average of 70-80 years; and I was born just 23 years ago. Time flies by faster than we think.
In 1929, Edwin Hubble, observing at the Mount Wilson Observatory in California, made perhaps the most important astronomical discovery of the 20th Century: the expansion of the Universe. The concept was originally conceived by Albert Einstein over a decade earlier in his equations of General Relativity; however, Einstein believed in a static Universe, and so incorporated what he called the “cosmological constant” to compensate for something he was not quite sure how to explain. Hubble realized, though, that not only was the Universe expanding, the further away galaxies were, the faster they were moving. In other words, the Universe is expanding at an accelerating rate. Confirming this expansion was absolutely remarkable and revolutionized the ways in which we peer beyond Earth’s atmosphere and into the vast reaches of space. The cause for this expansion is still a huge question mark for theorists; nonetheless, the Big Bang, with a more recent addition known as Inflation, is the accepted theory today. But, there remains a problem: no theory has been designed that can accurately predict and explain, with verifiable equations, what happened at a time just 10^-43 (a decimal point with 42 zeros and a 1) seconds before the expansion began, creating a disunion of the Weak Nuclear, Strong Nuclear, Electromagnetic and Gravitational forces. There seems to be a big fuzzy patch at the beginning of any textbook explanation to The Big Bang which denotes a fundamental breakdown of all known and accepted theories that have been formulated to explain the Universe. These unknowns, along with many other unanswered questions, should be inspiration for Humankind to constantly be at the cutting edge of intellectual development, scientific research and technological breakthroughs.
I realize that for some these numbers, along with the evidence, are just too overwhelming or may sound far-fetched. Perhaps it just completely goes against others’ religious beliefs. Regardless of any circumstance, these facts remain; and what one must consider is the level of technological and intellectual advancement Humankind has heretofore achieved. We are still at a relatively primitive stage in our Human Endeavor; and given that our technological progression is rapidly outpacing our intellectual progression, we stand at a pivotal point in our collective existence. We must stabilize this separation of advancement with the choices we make in the next decade—truly the most influential decisions Humankind will have ever made. The key to making the right choices is doing so in Unity. But, how can we make any choices, with respect to the interests, well-being and advancement of all of Humankind, if we continue as separate nations? Some in which Human trafficking, oppression, genocide and many other savage acts are carried out on a day-to-day basis; others in which private entities and corporations have a political stronghold on public policies that do not necessarily protect the interests of the public, but rather business interests. A global Federation would be a great start. An alliance of that magnitude will surely usher in future generations of Prosperity, Unity and Advancement for all Citizens of Earth. If there is any way for you to see life the way in which I see, it is this: the next time you are out at night and you have access to a clear view of a cloudless, moonless sky, do yourself a favor that so many neglect to do; take a few moments and just look up. Overwhelming, isn’t it? Just imagine the possibilities.
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