Another essay assigned for the class Energy & the Environment (Fall Semester 2018, CU Boulder) asked students to develop either a prosecutor's argument convicting human use of fossil fuels of causing an increase in global temperature or a defense attorney's argument for a "not guilty" verdict. Admittedly glossing over much of the data, I chose to focus on just a few simple concepts to make my point.
Greenhouse gases are a fairly well-studied component of planetary atmospheres. Included in the list of the most prominent—capable of regulating and/or destabilizing the climate
on a given planet—are water vapor, carbon dioxide, and methane. These gases tend to trap solar
energy radiated from the surface of a planet (measured as its albedo) that would normally make
it back to space and have relatively little impact on the equilibrium temperature at the planet’s
radius from its parent star. And, if mechanisms exist on planets which continue pumping more
greenhouse gases into their atmospheres—carbon sources such as volcanic eruptions—without
other mechanisms to pull those gases back out (called carbon sinks), the actual surface
temperatures of those planets exceedingly deviate from their equilibrium temperatures. A
perfect example in our very own solar system is that of Venus. While the equilibrium temperature
of Venus should be around -43 degrees Celsius, the actual surface temperature is over 500
degrees Celsius! Why? The atmosphere of Venus is mostly carbon dioxide, which traps much of
the incident radiation from the Sun, and there are no known mechanisms to pull any of that
carbon dioxide from it. Venus is a slow rotator (its day is longer than its year) and it is geologically
dead with no magnetic field. But, we can learn much from examining the impact of greenhouse
gases on global temperatures. So, what does it mean for us here on Earth?
Ice core samples from Antarctica have allowed accurate depictions of the natural
fluctuations of Earth’s climate for at least the past 800,000 years. As well, since 1958 accurate
measurements have been taken at Mauna Loa in Hawaii of the carbon dioxide content of the
atmosphere. These measurements clearly indicate an upward trend, and, when superimposed
on the ice core data from the past 1000 years, is quite unprecedented, as shown in the figure
from the textbook Energy and the Environment (3rd Edition):
Earth has gone through a series of global temperature fluctuations in its billions of years.
From glaciations and ice ages to warmer, more moderate climates, the natural processes
regulating outgassing and carbon sequestration—volcanic eruptions, plate tectonics,
atmospheric composition, and ocean temperatures—have allowed long periods over which slow
fluctuations in Earth’s climate occurred. But, human activities in just a few centuries have caused
a wild deviation from the slowly regulated climate of the past. Since the industrial revolutions of
the 18th and 19th centuries, humans have been dumping vast amounts of carbon dioxide,
methane, and many other combustion and industry products, into the Earth’s atmosphere. We
have created many carbon sources by pulling hydrocarbons out of the ground and burning them;
but, we have created virtually zero carbon sinks over the same amount of time. And some of the
most impactful carbon sinks that already exist—the oceans—are being warmed by this atmospheric feedback loop; i.e. the warmer the oceans, the less CO2 they are capable of
absorbing. (This is how a runaway greenhouse effect accelerates!) We’ve also increased the
human population exponentially and created an industry of gigantic agriculture that now
contributes to more than half of the methane released into the atmosphere by anthropogenic
means. An expectation of no repercussions would be inexcusably foolish!
It is very clear that human activities have been releasing hundreds of millions of tons of
greenhouse gases into the atmosphere each year for decades. It’s also very clear what happens
over time to atmospheres that experience a runaway greenhouse effect: Hotter, drier summers;
colder, harsher winters; and wildly unpredictable, more severe weather phenomena such as
hurricanes. But, we only live an average of 80 years on this planet so of course it seems
reasonable to think that because we might not see a significant difference over the course of our
lifetimes then it must not be that significant. But, we would be wrong and stupid to think so
arrogantly. When the natural fluctuations of Earth’s climate have occurred over the course of
thousands, hundreds of thousands, or even millions of years, the only insignificant thing around
would be the average human lifespan. But that doesn’t preclude the possibility of having a
significant impact on that climate, as all current data indicate we have increased the CO2
concentration in Earth’s atmosphere to levels never seen in several hundred thousand years.
Point blank: We are negatively impacting Earth’s atmosphere. All evidence points directly
to human activities. And if we want to still have a habitable world for generations to come, then
we better get serious about transitioning from fossil fuels to carbon neutral and so-called
‘alternative’ energy sources. The debate is over. We either act now or we deserve whatever we
get for being such a pathetic, potential-squandering species.
Resources
Bennett, J. O., Donahue, M., Schneider, N., & Voit, M. (2017). The cosmic perspective. Boston:
Pearson.
Ristinen, R. A. (2016). Energy and the environment. Place of publication not identified: Nielsen
Bookdata.
Rothery, D. A., Gilmour, I., Sephton, M. A., & Anand, M. (2011). An Introduction to
Astrobiology. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Astrobiology. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.